Māori: Demographics for Economic Return

Appendix B: Projection Assumptions

The ethnic concept used in the projections in this paper ‘is the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is self-perceived and people can belong to more than one ethnic group. For example, people can identify with Māori ethnicity even though they may not be descended from a Māori ancestor. Conversely, people may choose to not identify with Māori ethnicity even though they are descended from a Māori ancestor’ (Statistics New Zealand2011).

The projections are based on the Series 6 (medium variant) assumptions; for details see http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/ NationalEthnicPopulationProjections_HoTP2006-26/Technical%20Notes.aspx . The following basic information is drawn from that site.

Fertility: The Series 6 assumptions assume that fertility rates for Māori women will vary until the year 2026 when the total fertility rate will reach 2.50 births per woman, down from 2.78 births per Māori woman in 2005-07. The corresponding total paternity rate of Māori men (with non-Māori women) is assumed to reach 0.95 in 2026, down from 0.97 births per Māori man in 2007. The assumptions also assume that Māori fertility will shift to slightly older ages. Projected births are then reduced to allow for births to Māori parent(s) that are not registered as Māori children. The medium variant assumes that 3.9 % of births to Māori parent(s) will be non-Māori children.

Mortality: The medium mortality variant assumes that mortality rates for Māori will continue to drop so that the life expectancy at birth for Māori males will increase from 70.9 years in 2007 to 75.4

Migration: The medium migration variant assumes long-run annual net migration of Māori people of -3,000. This is based on trends of -4,500 in 2007, -5,500 in 2008, -4,000 in 2009, -2,000 in 2010, and -2,000 in 2011. The age-sex patterns of net migration assume net outflows at all ages, with the highest net outflows at ages 19–26 years. Inter-ethnic mobility: The projections make an allowance for people changing their ethnic identification over time. Comparisons of demographic estimates and census populations during 1966–2006 suggest that inter-ethnic mobility generally resulted in a loss from the Māori population of between 0.3 and 0.9% per year. However, changes in census questionnaire design, ethnicity classification and coding make it difficult to measure inter-ethnic mobility, especially as there are no explicit estimates of ethnic migration. In some periods there has been greater awareness of Māori issues which may have increased the propensity of people to identify with Māori ethnicity. The 2006-base medium variant assumes inter-ethnic mobility loss from the Māori population … The medium variant assumes a net change due to Māori people changing their ethnic identification based on an average annual rate (in 2007) of -0.3%. The age pattern of inter-ethnic mobility is applied to each sex and assumes the highest net mobility at ages 12–26 years.

Appendix C - Subnational Ending of Growth

Table 4: Subnational Areas Stopped Growing/In Decline 2006-2010

Change
  Size in
2010
2006-2010
(%)
% 20-39
years
% 65+
years
Elderly/
Children
Natural
Increase
Chatham Islands territory 640 0.0 26.6 12.1 0.55 0.15 declining
Gore district 12300 -0.4 20.7 17.9 0.92 0.17 declining
Kawerau district 7000 -2.1 22.0 15.0 0.60 1.07  
Opotiki district 8990 -2.2 18.7 15.4 0.63 0.40 declining
Otorohanga district 9290 -0.2 25.1 11.5 0.50 0.89  
Rangitikei district 14850 -1.7 21.7 16.2 0.76 0.68  
Ruapehu district 13500 -4.0 24.1 11.8 0.50 0.90 declining
South Taranaki district 26800 -1.5 24.0 14.3 0.63 0.84  
South Waikato district 22800 -2.2 22.2 14.3 0.58 0.90  
Tararua district 17700 -1.9 21.0 15.2 0.67 0.69 declining
Wairoa district 8430 -3.4 20.8 13.9 0.55 0.90  
Waitaki district 20700 0.0 17.4 21.9 1.23 -0.04 declining
Waitomo district 9640 -0.3 23.4 12.5 0.50 1.00  
Wanganui district 43500 -0.7 21.3 18.0 0.89 0.37  
Whakatane district 34500 0.0 22.0 13.8 0.60 0.57 declining
Total (these areas) 250640 -1.2 - - - - -
As % of Total New Zealand 5.7            
New Zealand     26.9 13.0 0.6 08  

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