Risks

20. Historically, recessions have had a disproportionately negative impact on Māori compared to non-Māori. The Treasury (2005) makes the point that:
    
    “…in the economic restructuring of the late 1980s and early 1990s…Maori were adversely affected to a greater extent because of where they were concentrated in the labour market and industry sectors (for example, in the manufacturing sector and in low-skilled occupations)…”¹⁵
21. This is still largely the case today. Although, there has been some shift by Māori towards sustainable, higher-paid forms of employment, a relatively high share remains employed in lower-skilled, lesser paid occupations. Similarly, Māori still remain over-represented in manufacturing as well as in other export-oriented industries which are more susceptible to global fluctuations in demand and commodity prices. This also includes those in retail and services that may be exposed to reductions in tourisms spending arising from international conditions.
22. Given the current Māori employment profile it is expected that Māori will be disproportionately negatively impacted by the recession as compared to non-Māori. Te Puni Kōkiri considers that a likely scenario is for a rise in Māori unemployment to 12-15% by mid 2010.¹⁶

¹⁵ Whitehead, J. and B. Annesley (2005) The Context for Māori Economic Development: A background paper for the 2005 Hui Taumata, New Zealand Treasury.

¹⁶ This forecast is based on a Treasury forecast of a rise in general unemployment to 5.7% over the next two years with an assumption that Māori unemployment will continue to be at least double the general rate. There are also initial signs of an economic slowdown in construction, tourism and primary industries. Māori are strongly represented in each of these sectors.