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The Implications of a Recession for the Māori Economy

Appendices

Treasury “Downside” Forecasts

Treasury "Downside" Forecasts
(Annual average % change,
Year ending 31 March) 		2008
Actual		 2009
Forecast 		2010
Forecast 		2011
Forecast 		2012
Forecast 		2013
Forecast
Real GDP components
Private consumption 3.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 0.9 1.8
Residential investment 3.8 -22.0 -18.8 6.3 14.1 18.4
Market investment 7.4 5.2 -23.7 2.0 16.0 8.8
Gross national expenditure 4.5 -0.1 -4.1 1.0 4.2 4.0
Exports of goods and services 2.3 -1.0 -3.2 1.7 8.9 7.7
Imports of goods and services 9.7 3.0 -14.0 -2.7 7.3 6.9
GDP (production measure) 3.2 -0.2 -0.3 2.3 4.5 4.2
Unemployment rate 1 3.7 5.0 7.2 7.1 5.9 4.8
90-day bank bill rate 2 8.8 5.0 3.5 3.2 4.0 5.0
TWI 2 71.9 53.4 48.7 51.7 52.8 52.6
CPI 3 3.4 3.1 3.1 1.0 1.2 1.5
Current account balance (% GDP) -8.0 -9.7 -10.6 -5.6 -3.1 -3.5
Nominal GDP level
(deviation from main
forecast, $billion)		 0.0 -1.1 -6.9 -5.1 -4.5 -4.8

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, The Treasury

 

1 Percentage of labour force, March quarter, seasonally adjusted.
2 Average for March quarter.
3 Annual percentage change, March quarter.